Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 22.892395 24.894898 27.053559 29.563988 32.416457 35.572428 39.349971
2026-01-11 19.897615 22.670222 25.867311 29.868663 34.803250 40.771969 48.668213
2026-01-18 17.534849 20.698013 24.540619 29.642238 36.380470 45.193788 57.985868
2026-01-25 15.798585 19.184178 23.474828 29.459890 37.849420 49.625309 68.289998
2026-02-01 14.504129 18.033204 22.668475 29.417210 39.393418 54.343147 80.154538
2026-02-08 13.421808 17.019181 21.888605 29.244671 40.641902 58.774249 92.752317
2026-02-15 12.512841 16.135711 21.168712 29.022583 41.717141 63.067315 106.382778
2026-02-22 11.741630 15.365182 20.515566 28.789459 42.690758 67.325429 121.358120
2026-03-01 11.114209 14.740756 20.005143 28.695150 43.845145 72.105442 139.238959
2026-03-08 10.557938 14.172238 19.519380 28.567929 44.895185 76.881838 159.162153
2026-03-15 10.309903 14.036604 19.675622 29.507846 48.015415 86.593601 196.901014
2026-03-22 9.826048 13.507580 19.165013 29.236793 48.772282 91.377027 223.481837
2026-03-29 9.416771 13.076445 18.792566 29.196985 50.043621 97.848724 260.727291
2026-04-05 9.106502 12.780207 18.617508 29.496891 52.077548 106.844635 315.366905
2026-04-12 8.727233 12.350848 18.187560 29.274703 52.959420 113.172116 366.174271
2026-04-19 8.387618 11.964861 17.802247 29.095667 53.910447 120.041299 428.412001
2026-04-26 8.098291 11.643557 17.504217 29.053793 55.172917 128.305348 511.135759
2026-05-03 7.811224 11.309817 17.160654 28.884283 56.104737 135.934863 604.860544
2026-05-10 7.538127 10.984825 16.810666 28.666059 56.883803 143.418709 715.443514
2026-05-17 7.282868 10.676899 16.471445 28.436969 57.602204 151.048144 849.869508
2026-05-24 7.064169 10.420125 16.208783 28.344289 58.669261 160.500526 1037.912625
2026-05-31 6.855256 10.170076 15.942962 28.219259 59.634014 170.082303 1275.163503
2026-06-07 6.795140 10.172880 16.146014 29.142908 63.719505 195.080890 1937.231930